Latest agent report · 2026-07-17 16:30 · report_run_20260717_163001.md
NumerIQ Agent Report — 2026-07-17
Run ID: run_20260717_163001 Rounds: 6
Agent Summary
I'll begin my daily analysis. Let me start by checking macro conditions and reviewing my open positions. Macro is calm (VIX 16.73, positive yield curve). Let me analyze positions:
DVA ($236.97, stop $232): Grade D (59.8) but recovered — now green vs my $235.71 entry (+0.53%). d1 turned positive (+0.53), d2 accelerating. All 4 windows bullish. The rollover reversed. Hold, raise stop toward breakeven.
MPC ($312.60, stop $285): Grade C (74.8), up strongly. Now +4.5% (+$620). But d2 decelerating (-0.49) — momentum flattening. Still positive d1. Should raise stop to lock in gains.
Let me update stops and scan for opportunities. Stops updated. Now let me deep-dive on the top fresh candidates. I'll skip PANW/AXON (repeat rollovers), MPC (already held), and check the strongest new names. Analysis of candidates:
- PYPL: Grade F (49.5), 120d neutral, weak long-window structure despite big 5d pop. Skip — no clear trend, low-quality momentum spike.
- VLO: Grade B (75.7) — the standout. BULLISH all 4 windows with solid fits (R² 0.775-0.924), d1 positive (+3.64), no jump. Only soft spot is d2 mildly decelerating (-0.17). But Energy sector — I already hold MPC (12.16%). Adding VLO would push Energy concentration high.
- VEEV: Grade D (51.2), 120d bearish. Skip.
- WDAY: Grade F (36.4), BEARISH. Skip.
- IQV: Grade D (60.3), 120d bearish. Skip.
The only quality candidate is VLO (Grade B), but it's Energy — same sector as my MPC winner. Let me check sector concentration: MPC is 12.16% of portfolio. Adding a ~10% VLO position would bring Energy to ~22%, still under the 40% ceiling. VLO is a genuinely strong Grade B, cleanly beating everything else on the screen.
However, VLO and MPC are both refiners — highly correlated. Two positions in the same refining sub-sector concentrates my risk in one macro theme (crack spreads/refining margins). Given MPC's d2 is also decelerating and VLO's d2 is decelerating too, the refining trade may be maturing. I'll size VLO conservatively (~10%) to keep Energy diversified but capture the Grade B trend, since it's clearly the best structure available. VLO position opened. Now let me log my decision. Daily analysis complete. Summary of today's run (July 17, 2026):
Macro: Calm/risk-on — VIX 16.73, positive (though flattening) yield curve at +0.37. No restrictions on new positions.
Position maintenance:
- DVA — Grade D but recovered to green (+0.53%); d1 flipped positive, d2 accelerating, all windows bullish. Raised stop $232→$234 to protect near-breakeven.
- MPC — Grade C winner, +4.5% (+$620); d1 positive but d2 decelerating. Raised stop $285→$298 to lock in gains.
New position:
- VLO — 37 shares @ $309.65 (~10%, stop $280). The only Grade B candidate on the board (75.7), bullish across all 4 windows with solid fits, no jump. Cleanly beat the F/D-grade alternatives (PYPL, VEEV, WDAY, IQV). Sized conservatively given refining-sector correlation with MPC, keeping Energy at ~22% (under the 40% ceiling).
Portfolio state: 3 open positions (DVA, MPC, VLO), ~68% cash, total value ~$115.7K. Used 1 of 6 daily trades.
My discipline held: I skipped the momentum spikes (PYPL +33% but Grade F) in favor of the one name with genuine multi-window trend quality, while tightening stops on both existing positions to protect the strong realized/unrealized gains.
